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中美新貿易協定很重要,但并非特朗普政府所說的那么重要

The Associated Press 2017年05月21日

此項協定主要集中在農產品、能源和金融產品領域,和美國制造業無關,而長期以來美國制造業一直是中美貿易關系緊張的根源。

對于新的中美貿易協定,美國商務部長威爾伯?羅斯在稱贊其偉大時說得有點兒過了。

“完成這項工作可以說是個巨大成就,”羅斯這樣描述涉及美國牛肉和液化天然氣對華出口的貿易方案,“它將超過中美整個貿易史上的所有成果。”

1972年美國總統理查德?尼克松訪華結束了兩國此前20年的冰凍期,并為美國最重要的貿易關系奠定了基礎,考慮到這些歷史,新的中美貿易協定將是一項艱難任務。去年中美商品貿易總貨值接近5790億美元,在美國外貿總額中的比重接近六分之一。

除了向中國出口牛肉和液化天然氣,此項協定還會降低長期以來為美國金融公司設置的在華經營門檻,同時允許美國從中國進口熟制禽肉,美國還將派代表參加在中國召開的一帶一路論壇。

羅斯并未說明他在上周四介紹情況時的用詞究竟有何含義。但貿易專家對此項協定的規模提出了質疑,而其中10項有限共識則被列為中美兩大經濟體之間的結構性轉變。

另一項結構性轉變是2001年中國加入世界貿易組織。經濟學家大衛?奧特爾、大衛?多恩和戈登?漢森的研究顯示,入世后中國對美出口激增,給美國經濟帶來了沖擊,并造成了逾100萬美國制造業工人失業。唐納德?特朗普總統已將消除對華貿易逆差作為他的首要政策目標之一。去年美國對中國的貿易逆差為3470億美元。

貿易專家迅速指出,此項協定主要集中在農產品、能源和金融產品領域,和美國制造業無關,而長期以來美國制造業一直是中美貿易關系緊張的根源。

布魯金斯學會高級研究員、美國財政部前官員杜大偉說:“這些措施很一般,本身不會對美國經濟產生多大影響。”(財富中文網)

譯者:Charlie

Heralding a new U.S.-China trade agreement, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross puffed a bit too hard in describing its greatness.

"It was pretty much a Herculean accomplishment to get this done," Ross said in describing a trade plan involving U.S. beef and liquefied natural gas exports to China. "This is more than has been done in the whole history of U.S.-China relations on trade."

That would be a tall order, given a history that encompasses President Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China, which ended a two-decade freeze between the two countries and laid the groundwork for the United States' largest trading relationship. U.S.-China exchanges of goods last year totaled nearly $579 billion, nearly one-sixth of all U.S. trade.

In addition to its provisions on beef and liquefied natural gas, the trade deal lowers long-standing barriers on the operation of U.S. financial firms in China, allows the import of cooked poultry from China, and will send U.S. delegates to a Chinese forum on building infrastructure in Asia and Europe.

Ross declined to say exactly what he meant by his characterization at a Thursday briefing. But trade experts questioned its magnitude, and the limited agreement on 10 items joins a list of tectonic shifts between the world's two largest economies.

Another is China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, an event that caused a surge in Chinese exports to the United States and created an economic shock that caused the loss of more than 1 million factory jobs, according to research by economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson. President Donald Trump has made closing the U.S. gap with China—it totaled $347 billion last year—one of his major policy goals.

Trade experts were quick to point out that the agreement, which largely focuses on agricultural goods, energy and financial products, does nothing for U.S. manufacturers, long a source of tension in the relationship with China.

"These are modest moves which by themselves will not have much effect on the U.S. economy," said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury Department official.

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