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最新就業數據對利率的影響

Katia Dmitirieva, 彭博社 2019年04月10日

失業率接近歷史新低,對于消費支出來說是利好消息。

今年3月,美國就業率反彈幅度超出預期,而且2月的數字也比初報值更加喜人。對于擔心經濟降溫的人來說,這一現象倒是能夠帶來一些安慰。薪資增幅有所放緩,失業率達到了近49年來的新低。

美國勞工部上周五的報告顯示,新增就業人數3.3萬,新增崗位數19.6萬。彭博社調查的新增崗位預期中值為17.7萬,同時2月新增就業人數初報值為2萬。國債收益率在此情況下依然出現小幅回落,但恢復至報告前水平。美國股票期貨有所上漲。

失業率依然維持在3.8%的水平,然而平均時薪較去年增加了3.2%,低于所有預估值,且低于擴張期間的最大漲幅。

雖然就業崗位增幅與去年相比較為溫和,但該數據意味著勞工市場足夠穩健,可在未來數月中支持經濟增長。失業率接近歷史新低,對于消費支出來說是利好消息。然而,薪資增幅的減緩意味著通脹將更低,而美聯儲的決策者們則在觀望美國經濟是否能夠經受住全球經濟增速的放緩。

法國興業銀行的美國利率策略負責人蘇巴德拉·拉賈帕在彭博電視采訪中表示:“這篇報告對于美聯儲來說堪稱完美,因為它實際上證實了他們一直以來所強調的內容:不存在薪資壓力。”

就在這一數據出爐之際,投資者預計今年的利率將在經歷了2018年四連增之后出現下調。美聯儲在2019年年初取消了對短期加息的預測,同時強調經濟風險將在全球經濟增速放緩環境下不斷增加。

新增就業人數方面,教育和醫療服務行業以及職業和商業服務是首要貢獻者。建筑行業新增就業人數1.6萬,而制造業則持續走弱,損失6000個工作崗位,是2017年中期以來的首次下降。從早期的其他數據來看,工廠就業率喜憂參半。

參與率(勞動年齡人口占勞動力的比例)從上個月的63.2%降至63%。盡管隨著大齡工人的退休,該數字將面臨持續的下行壓力,但它在最近幾個月中有所上升,原因在于雇主需求的增加讓更多的美國人獲得了工作。

新增工作崗位1月、2月的合并修訂后數據較此前報告增加了1.4萬,然而前三月的平均值則從19.1萬降至18萬。

平均時薪較上月增長0.1%,低于預估值,上個月增幅為0.4%。周工作時長的增加可能也對薪資帶來了影響:所有非農雇員的周工作平均時長從34.4小時增至34.5小時。周工作時長的增加可能會拉低平均時薪。

其他信息

U-6(又稱就業不足率)為7.3%;其范圍包括更愿意從事全職工作的兼職員工以及想獲得工作但并未積極尋找工作的人士。非農就業也出現了反彈,在上修2.8萬個后增加了18.2萬個;政府新增就業人數達到了1.4萬。(財富中文網)

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

U.S. hiring rebounded more than forecast in March and the prior month was stronger than first reported, potentially relieving some concerns about a cooling economy. Wage gains eased and the unemployment rate held near a 49-year low.

Payrolls rose 196,000 after a 33,000 advance, a Labor Department report showed last Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey saw an increase of 177,000 after an initially reported 20,000 gain in February. Treasury yields pared their gains briefly, but recovered to pre-report levels. U.S. stock futures advanced.

The jobless rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, while average hourly earnings increased 3.2 percent from the prior year, below all estimates and down from the best pace of the expansion.

The data signal the labor market is solid enough to support economic growth in coming months even if job gains are moderating from last year’s pace. Unemployment near historic lows bodes well for consumer spending, though weaker wage gains suggest inflation will be even more muted as Fed policy makers wait to see how the U.S. economy weathers a global slowdown.

“This a perfect report for the Fed because it actually corroborates what they’ve been saying all along, which is there are no wage pressures,” Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale SA, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There’s very little risk of wage inflation.”

The data come as investors expect an interest-rate cut this year after four hikes in 2018. The Fed early in 2019 removed projections for rate rises in the near term while flagging increasing economic risks amid slowing global growth.

Payroll gains were led by education and health services as well as professional and business services. Construction payrolls rebounded with a 16,000 gain while manufacturing continued to weaken with a loss of 6,000 jobs, the first decline since mid-2017. Other data had earlier shown a mixed picture for factory employment.

The participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 63 percent from 63.2 percent the prior month. The rate, which faces continued downward pressure as older workers retire, had ticked up in recent months as increased employer demand has pulled in more Americans.

Combined revisions for January and February added 14,000 more jobs than previously reported, though the three-month average decreased to 180,000 from 191,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent from the prior month, missing estimates, following a 0.4 percent gain. A longer workweek may also have had an impact on wages: The average for all private employees increased to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours. A longer workweek tends to reduce average hourly pay.

Other Details

The U-6, or underemployment rate, held at 7.3 percent; the gauge includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want a job but aren’t actively looking. Private employment also rebounded to show a 182,000 gain after an upwardly revised 28,000 increase; government payrolls expanded by 14,000.

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